Kyle Chan, whose work I greatly admire, has written a powerful and provocative op-ed that was published today in the New York Times. Titled "In the Future, China Will Be Dominant.
Many thanks, Kaiser, for this thoughtful and nuanced response piece! I agree with your deeper sociological analysis of the US and China--and wish I could've included many of your points in my op-ed!
Thanks much for sharing this interesting article by Mr. Chan! I wholeheartedly agree that current MAGA policies are seriously hurting the US, opening an opportunity for China to assume world leadership. But China in its current state is probably unable to rise to the occasion. The "state-driven economic playbook" isn't the great winning formula but rather a handicap. To see what I mean, just look at this recent news from the People's Daily, showing how bureaucracy is running amok: https://open.substack.com/pub/trackingpeoplesdaily/p/china-revises-dogedope-regulations?r=rkbi&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email.
In general from what I hear from friends working at SOEs, bureaucracy is terrible and getting worse. It's no accident that DeepSeek didn't originate from some favoured SOE but from private initiative.
China having four times the population of the US will probably become the larger economy soon; but their bureaucracy is unlikely to produce income per head similar to US or European levels. And as far as soft power is concerned, in spite of all Trumpian shenanigans, the idea of individual rights and democracy has a perpetual appeal; just look where wealthy Chinese (even patriotic ones) are parking their wealth and their offspring.
I am an eternal optimist, so I hope that Mr. Trump's policy forces China into doing the reforms which are necessary anyway, and that in a few years American people have learnt their lesson and kick the MAGA rascals out. That would be truly win-win, as XJP likes to say.
Here is how the Chinese and US governments are different. From WaPo today "Former president Joe Biden directed a 25 percent tariff on Chinese NdFeB magnets to begin in 2026. Trump might create additional targeted and enduring tariffs on Chinese magnets to signal to Beijing that undercutting American manufacturers doesn’t pay." If the Chinese government wants something, they say (with apoligies to Nike) "JUST DO IT" (implied... or else")
Many thanks, Kaiser, for this thoughtful and nuanced response piece! I agree with your deeper sociological analysis of the US and China--and wish I could've included many of your points in my op-ed!
Thanks much for sharing this interesting article by Mr. Chan! I wholeheartedly agree that current MAGA policies are seriously hurting the US, opening an opportunity for China to assume world leadership. But China in its current state is probably unable to rise to the occasion. The "state-driven economic playbook" isn't the great winning formula but rather a handicap. To see what I mean, just look at this recent news from the People's Daily, showing how bureaucracy is running amok: https://open.substack.com/pub/trackingpeoplesdaily/p/china-revises-dogedope-regulations?r=rkbi&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email.
In general from what I hear from friends working at SOEs, bureaucracy is terrible and getting worse. It's no accident that DeepSeek didn't originate from some favoured SOE but from private initiative.
China having four times the population of the US will probably become the larger economy soon; but their bureaucracy is unlikely to produce income per head similar to US or European levels. And as far as soft power is concerned, in spite of all Trumpian shenanigans, the idea of individual rights and democracy has a perpetual appeal; just look where wealthy Chinese (even patriotic ones) are parking their wealth and their offspring.
I am an eternal optimist, so I hope that Mr. Trump's policy forces China into doing the reforms which are necessary anyway, and that in a few years American people have learnt their lesson and kick the MAGA rascals out. That would be truly win-win, as XJP likes to say.
Here is how the Chinese and US governments are different. From WaPo today "Former president Joe Biden directed a 25 percent tariff on Chinese NdFeB magnets to begin in 2026. Trump might create additional targeted and enduring tariffs on Chinese magnets to signal to Beijing that undercutting American manufacturers doesn’t pay." If the Chinese government wants something, they say (with apoligies to Nike) "JUST DO IT" (implied... or else")