Xi Jinping’s growing diplomatic clout was on full display over the past week.
Things kicked off in the Chinese port city of Tianjin, where Xi hosted the annual meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
The enduring image from that meeting will be a beaming Russian President Vladimir Putin, walking hand-in-hand with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi — just before the two shared a hearty laugh with Xi.
Over the next several days, Xi hosted a spate of key bilateral meetings with Global South leaders – the one-on-ones with India and Russia (again), alongside Malaysia, Indonesia, and North Korea stood out as particularly notable.
And of course, on Wednesday, many of those same leaders joined Xi in Beijing for a huge military parade to mark the 80th anniversary of the ending of the “Chinese People’s War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression” – or what most of the world refers to as World War II.
The big question: Was all this pageantry simply good optics for the Chinese?
Or will the past week mark a major turning point in China’s hoped-for shift to a New World Order?
In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver hash it all out.
They also talk through how to make small talk when a fellow authoritarian leader floats the idea of immortality.
Transcript follows:
Andrew Polk:
Hi, everybody, and welcome to the latest edition of the Trivium China Podcast, a proud member of the Sinica Podcast Network. I’m your host, Trivium Cofounder – Andrew Polk. And I’m joined today by my colleague and frequent podcast guest, Trey McArver, from London. Trey, how are you doing, man?
Trey McArver:
Yeah, doing good.
Andrew:
Great to have you on. So, we’re having Trey on today because we are going to talk about, well, essentially the New World Order, at least as China sees it. There were some big shifting geopolitical trends on full display this week, as much of the global south got together for essentially a day’s long gathering in China for most of this past week. The festivities included the latest meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Tianjin on Monday, a spate of official head of state meetings with Xi Jinping and leaders from other countries from Sunday to Thursday.
Some of the big ones included leaders from India, Malaysia, Russia, Indonesia, and North Korea. There were a bunch of others. We’ll kind of get into some of the big ones and what the implications are there. And then, finally, Xi Jinping’s big military parade in Beijing on Wednesday to commemorate the end of World War II, or as China calls it, the Chinese People’s War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression, aka the World Anti-fascist War. So, there were some extremely important meetings and optics in China this week, clearly, and it was all pretty striking, both from substance and optics, for reasons that we’ll get into today with Trey on the pod. And I would say the Western media very much to framed this as Xi Jinping, again, pushing this new global order with all of these folks getting together and seeming to be leading into a sense of bonhomie very much over the past few days.
So, we’ll get into all of it. But before we do, we have to start with the customary vibe check. Trey, how are you doing, man? How’s your vibe?
Trey:
Good vibe. Good vibe.
Andrew:
Vibe is good. It’s the weekend. Okay, my vibe is tired. I was up late last night. So, heading into the weekend as well. I’m on a roll now, I might as well complain about the same thing I complained about last week, which is I’m jet lagged in reverse because now I’m in Washington D.C., and you’re supposed to go to bed early, but instead I was up until 2 AM. So, who knows what’s going on? Either way, we’re going to bring some energy to this pod. Might as well take this opportunity to timestamp the pod. It’s 10:25 AM on Friday, September 6th. Happy birthday, Jarrett Reed — one of my best buds from elementary school. I don’t think he listens to the pod.
Anyway, we like to timestamp these because events obviously happen so quickly. We want to make sure that people know the kind of information we’re working with at any given time. So, Friday morning, September 5th. alright. Now, last thing up top before we get into the meat of the discussion is always got to go through the housekeeping. A quick reminder — we’re not just a podcast here. Trivium China is a strategic advisory firm that helps businesses and investors navigate the China policy landscape. That, of course, includes policy towards China out of Western capitals like Washington, D.C., London, Brussels, and others.
So, if you need help on that front, reach out to us at hq@triviumchina.com. We’d love to have a conversation about how we can support your business or your fund. Otherwise, if you’re interested in receiving more Trivium content, check out our website, triviumchina.com. We’ve got a bunch of different subscription products, both free and paid. You will definitely find the China policy intel that fits your needs on our site. Check it out. Become a subscriber. Tell your friends about it so they can become subscribers. And while you’re at it, tell your friends about the pod and about Trivium China more generally. It really does help us a lot. So, if you can think of one person to talk to Trivium about whether the business or the pod, over the course of the next week, it will grow our listenership, grow our business, and help us support the great free content that we bring to you.
So, alright, let’s get into it. We are going to start again with the SCO summit, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit. I’ll give a few details here, Trey, and then we’ll get right into it with you to tell us kind of why all this is so important and a little bit more background on kind of what we’re looking at here. So, Sunday, and Monday, Xi Jinping hosted world leaders for the annual Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin. That’s a port city, about a 45-minute train ride from Beijing. The SCO was established in 2001 by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. In recent years, India, Pakistan, Iran, and Belarus have joined the organization. So, you can kind of get a flavor of the constituents at this meeting.
But since then, there are another 15 states that have joined as observers or dialogue partners, pretty much all global south countries, very Asia-heavy, but not exclusively. There are some heavy hitters among the 20-plus heads of state and government that attended this year, most notably, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Vietnamese Prime Minister, I’m not going to try to say the name… the Vietnamese prime minister. And, much like last year, Xi used the summit to advocate for a global order that better represents the interests of China.
Addressing the assembled global leaders on Monday, Xi proposed a new global governance initiative to complement his Global Security Initiative, Global Development Initiative, and Global Civilization Initiative, and, more concretely, Xi also proposed the creation of a new SCO Development Bank. In addition, Xi Jinping promised that China will implement 100 development projects in SCO member states, provide RMB 200 billion in grants to SCO member states this year, issuing an additional RMB 10 billion in loans to banks in the SCO interbank consortium over the next three years, double the number of SCO-specific scholarships, presumably to study in China next year, launch an SCO and innovative PhD program, and establish ten vocational training programs in SCO member states over the next five years.
So, that’s a lot. Some concrete steps out of this. Trey, just kick us off. Tell us a little bit more about the SCO, why it’s important, and then we’ll get into some of these more specifics around the new Global Governance Initiative and the new SCO development.
Trey:
Yeah. Well, I think the SCO, like you said, I mean, it’s been around now for 24 years. And I would say, for perhaps all of those 24 years, it’s kind of been looked like as a joke. And it basically suffers from the same criticism that the BRICS suffers from, which is this is a grouping of countries who, basically, have a lot of different interests, don’t necessarily agree on a ton of things, and so don’t tend to actually get anything done practically. But I actually think that criticism for both the BRICS and for the SCO has always been a little bit overdone. I think this year in particular shows the value of the SCO. I think the main value of the SCO is it gets the heads of state or heads of government from all of these countries in the same room once a year.
And I think anybody who looks at the way kind of international relations work, state-to-state relations work, will tell you that the way that things get done between countries is when the leaders meet. And so even if the SCO itself, as a body, doesn’t really accomplish much, I think the fact that it exists as an organization and the fact that these guys get together every year, and they are all guys, is where the real value lays. Now, that said, for the past couple of years, they haven’t gotten together. So, I think this year was particularly important. So, in 2023, the SCO summit was virtual. India was the host that year. And it’s still not really clear why they didn’t hold it in person. But it appears that, basically, they didn’t want the Pakistani prime minister or perhaps Xi Jinping to come to India.
And then last year, similar sort of issue, you’re going to notice a theme here, but last year, well, Modi skipped the SCO summit, sent the foreign minister instead. So, I think if the major kind of import of this group is that it gets the heads of state or government together, the SCO had been failing for the past couple of years, but I think this year it succeeded big time. And so I think not only was China able to kind of advance bilateral relations with a lot of different countries, but I think also this year the symbolism of having all of these heads of state come to China to Tianjin was particularly important. And that is because of the broader global dynamic, particularly how the rest of the world is reacting to the Trump administration, and then to a certain degree, how they’re reacting to U.S. efforts, not just in the Trump administration, but over recent years to increasingly isolate China.
So, I think for China, this was a huge win to get all of these heads of state. And, particularly, obviously, Russia comes, the president of Kazakhstan comes. That’s expected. But getting Prime Minister Modi from India there — they have been developing a key strategic partnership with the United States in recent years. That’s a huge coup. Having the president of Turkey, a NATO ally, come that’s a huge coup for Xi Jinping. And I think, probably most importantly, or maybe not most importantly, but also very importantly, was the fact that you had so many Southeast Asian heads of government and heads of state travel to Beijing. Southeast Asia, I think, is kind of where U.S.-China tensions kind of hit the road. And I think those countries in particular often feel under a lot of pressure, from the United States in particular, to not work with China.
So, the fact that almost every ASEAN state, well, seven out of ten ASEAN states were there, I think, was really important for Xi and for China.
Andrew:
Yeah, I’ll just quickly say, having done a tour of Southeast Asia, a few different places, earlier this year in January, when I think we did a podcast on the back of it, they definitely are under pressure. But it’s funny because you talk to people on the ground and government leaders in Southeast Asia, they’re aligned, or aligned is not the right word, they have different relationships with China and the U.S. Each of them has different relationships with both. But all of them kind of say, “No matter where their position, yeah, we’re so used to playing China and the U.S. off of each other, like, this has been our life for 200 years or whatever.” So, it is funny. There is a sense among people on the ground that I spoke to earlier in the year that, like, “Yeah, there’s more pressure, but this is something we know how to do.”
So, just an anecdote there, but totally point taken on all those leaders being there. Just how important that is. Obviously, when you look at, in comparison to, basically, Western alliance is very much under strain in terms of the leadership of the Trump administration and how Europe and other allies are reacting to that. But there are a couple other things I wanted to touch on. I’m going to share three things that you. One is talk to me about what you think about the new SCO Development Bank. Does it matter? I’ll just throw it out there. I think this was explicit when it was talked about at the meeting. This is a way to build financing channels in RMB outside of the U.S. dollar-denominated global financial system.
So, will it matter? That’s one. Second thing maybe to touch on is that not only was it important that everybody, all these leaders you talked about, were at the SCO, but there was also like a show of relative solidarity. So, a few examples here. First, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Pakistani Prime Minister set aside some differences to accept compromise language on the incident that sparked a four-day border conflict in May. I mean, that’s huge — getting Pakistan and India to agree on anything. So, at least sort of putting their best foot forward. That’s not even to mention the point you made about India and China and the rapprochement that was happening there, which we’ll get into in a second.
There was a declaration that condemned “unilateral coercive measures that violate WTO rules.” Openly, they’ll jab at the US and EU trade protectionism, arguing that these actions undermine economic fairness and threaten food and energy security. Again, these global south countries often cannot agree on trade issues. And so them coming together to kind of condemn the Western countries, even if it was oblique, is big. And then, like I said, the images of Putin claps, being hands with Modi and Xi, and them laughing, which, again, I’ll say that one. So, point number one is the SCO bank. Number two is this kind of relative solidarity with people, you know, leaders of countries kind of finding ways to get past some traditional tensions.
And then, finally, there is a big focus on Chinese tech and sort of diffusing Chinese technology throughout the SCO community, with Xi Jinping saying, specifically, “China will establish three major platforms for China SCO cooperation in energy, green industry in the digital economy, and will set up three major cooperation centers for scientific and technological innovation — higher education in vocational and technical education.” So, that’s a lot to throw at you. But those are the three kind of big themes.
Trey:
That is a lot. You’re like, I’m going to tell you, I’m going to throw three things at you. Alright, here’s the first three. And here’s the second three. Alright, and I’m just going to throw a few more at you.
Andrew:
Okay, boil them down. Boil them down. Development bank solidarity and Chinese tech in the SCO. One at a time. Hit them, baby!
Trey:
Okay. alright. So, I think “solidarity” is a complicated thing, a complex subject. But I thought most of that, when it comes to like language on unilateral sanctions and all that type of stuff, like that shouldn’t come as any surprise. And my guess is that if we looked at previous SCO declarations, same similar type of language, because it’s true. I mean, I think you could pretty much get everybody in the world, including American allies, to sign on to that statement right now. So, I do think this kind of compromise language between India and Pakistan, I think, shows the value of organizations like this. That compromise language doesn’t happen if you don’t have an SCO summit where everybody has to agree on a declaration.
But, broadly speaking, am I really impressed with what the SCO accomplished as far as getting everybody on the same page? No. Like, the development bank, that is the one, I think, concrete outcome that came out of this. But I can point to a lot of other area. I mean, but first of all, we don’t know how that’s going to progress. And it does seem that development banks may just be the lowest common denominator. You know, I think that’s arguably the only thing that the BRICS has achieved as well is setting up its own development bank. And I don’t think, maybe I’m wrong, but I wouldn’t say that the BRICS New Development Bank has necessarily been a game changer, and it’s been around for almost a decade now.
But I actually would have expected to see more on facilitating trade in local currencies. We didn’t see anything about that. I mean, there was one line in the summit declaration that says, “…member states emphasize the important role of financial cooperation in promoting economic growth, and believe it’s important for the relevant member states to continue implementing the roadmap for expanding the share of local currency settlement among SCO member states,” which is an agreement from 2022, which I think was important when they signed it in 2022.
And we do see gradual increases in local currency settlement among these countries. But it’s so far from reached an overwhelming percentage of bilateral trade with any of them. I would think that you could have something more kind of aggressive if people really wanted to work towards something. I mean, to me, this is like the weakest source I’ve ever seen. Like, member states note the initiative to develop an agreement on trade facilitation within the SCO framework. So, it’s like, okay, we acknowledge that we’re going to try to create an agreement to facilitate trade. I mean, to me, that is hardly striking as a statement of purpose or intent. And one thing that is noticeable in every CEO summit declaration is that they usually have it by category.
And there’s a big section that’s always on kind of economic and financial cooperation that always starts with Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Iran, Belarus, and Pakistan acknowledge the importance of the Belt & Road Initiative. And, of course, what’s very noticeable about that statement is that the second-biggest economy in the SCO, India, is not in that list of countries. India has never acknowledged the BRI, will not sign up to the BRI. And like I said, for the past two years, India has kind of undermined the SCO a little bit. And so, I think while the development bank is notable, I remain a little bit skeptical on just how much the SCO as an organization can really drive through meaningful change.
That said, I feel like a broken record, but the fact that all these guys got together is important. And when you ask about Xi, Putin, and Modi, I mean that, to me, that will be the enduring memory of this SCO is XI and Modi holding hands, the three of them sitting around and laughing. I mean, those were really striking images in particular, because in Europe and in the United States, although kind of complicated in the United States because it’s not really clear what the current U.S. administration thinks about anything, but there has been massive efforts to isolate Russia, on one hand, and also to isolate China in a different aspect.
And India has been key to both of those efforts. The fact that India basically flew over to Tianjin, and said, “Hey, these are my buddies,” is a real slap in the face to the United States and kind of U.S. foreign policy objectives more broadly. And it’s no secret why this happened. It’s because the United States has slapped 50% tariffs on India. I will note, which I think kind of made this a certainty, it is important, we do have a tendency to view everything through the lens of Trump these days, and I do think it’s important to note that actually a Sino-Indian kind of détente or rapprochement, or pick your French word of choice, started in October of last year. So, before even the election, the U.S. election had happened, Xi and Modi met at the BRICS Summit, right?
Andrew:
Mm-hmm.
Trey:
Again. And they had a fruitful bilateral meeting where they basically decided to kind of dial down tensions. Then that’s been followed up with a really important visit by Foreign Minister Wang Yi to India last month, where they agreed a dialogue mechanism to talk about the border disputes. So, the Sino-Indian thaw has been in place well before Trump. But I think the recent actions by the Trump administration against India, I think, really incentivized Modi to go there and make a big show of palling around with Xi and Putin.
Andrew:
Yeah, well, a couple of things before I have to go into the tech piece, which I’d just say we talk about how sort of last time in the first Trump administration, China sort of flubbed its opportunity to sort of take advantage of the U.S. stepping back from global leadership on a lot of stuff. And I think we normally kind of frame that, basically around Europe, that Xi Jinping and China were not able to sort of get Europe more on their side vis-à-vis the U.S. That was always going to be an uphill battle. But they really stepped on their own toes by being very aggressive diplomatically, the wolf warriorism. This time around, the question was, Trump 2.0, can China do any better? It’s clear that they’re not going to drive any further wedges, or at least, you know, there’s already some complications, if not wedges, between the U.S. and Europe because of some actions Trump has taken, and specifically Trump’s perspective on Ukraine.
But that doesn’t mean Europe, in any way, is going to move closer to China. But India may well. I think I see a lot of people saying, “This isn’t the death knell or whatever of U.S.-India cooperation. We’ll see how things evolve from here.” But if one of the big developments of Trump 2.0 is that Xi Jinping can pull India closer, that’s a huge change, right? With two kind of historic rival countries, and India being sort of the linchpin of the U.S. strategy in much of the Pacific, the Indo-Pacific, right? As we call it. I mean, if Xi Jinping can pull that off, I mean, it really will be a tectonic shift in kind of the global order. I mean, it’s early days, and there’s a lot of optics and there is a media narrative here, but that’s a very important one to watch, in my view. And then the second thing I was just going to say on the development bank is I’m with you in that, you know, how much do these things matter?
But Dinny and I, our head of markets research, have talked a lot about, on this pod, how China sees kind of what they think as a historic opportunity, again, to take advantage of economic uncertainty being driven out of the U.S., and how that’s impacting people’s faith in the U.S. dollar globally. China doesn’t want to displace the U.S. dollar, but basically, the way we read it is officials in China feel that there’s an opportunity here where the U.S. dollar is kind of getting knocked down the peg, and other countries are going to be more and more interested in using alternative currencies, not just the renminbi, but a range of other currencies. And they want to have options on the table if and when this kind of flares up again.
So, it might not be that the development bank matters all that much, but it could be a forum for certain countries to transact in non-U.S. dollar currencies, specifically the renminbi, if the US further weaponizes the U.S. dollar throughout the Trump administration and beyond. So, again, just these things in the immediate are relatively small moves, and it’s easy to kind of say, well, maybe they’re nothing burgers, but if they continue to build and come to fruition, they could be early moves in what ultimately are quite tectonic shifts. So, that’s kind of my $0.02 on it. But last piece, what do you make of Xi Jinping pushing Chinese tech in the SCO? I mean, that’s a sort of a no-brainer from my thought. What’s your reaction to that one?
Trey:
Yeah. Well, just one more piece on the currency piece. I mean, I had to look this up quickly. Again, I agree with you that the development bank could be an important step. But I think what I mean when I talk about nothing burgers is I would have expected to see more forceful language about, you know, absent the development bank, just settlement in local currencies. And so I was just looking quickly, I mean, I see at the BRICS Summit, in their summit declaration from earlier this year, they promised to double the amount of local currency settlement in member country trade. To me, that’s meaningful, right? Like, that’s a concrete goal that says we’re really going to increase this. And I was just surprised that the SCO couldn’t agree to do something like that.
All they could agree to do was a kind of boilerplate statement about how it should be better. That makes me wonder how quickly any of this is going to progress and how much appetite there really is among member states for doing this. I would say, while I saw, I think, the outcomes of the SCO summit itself were pretty underwhelming, I think you kind of went through that list of things that China offered at the beginning. So, 100 development projects and the 2 billion in grants and the 10 billion in loans, etc., and also I thought the tech cooperation was really big, right? Where China basically said, “Look, we’re going to help you guys build out your renewable energy.” They said, “We’re going to help SCO countries to increase the installed capacity of photovoltaic and wind power, each by 10,000,000 kW in the next five years.”
Right. Again, when I see concrete promises, I’m like, okay, this is actually something that’s going to happen. And so you have that. You also have a promise of creating an AI cooperation center. And also, basically, China said that they were going to help countries to use the BeiDou satellite navigation system, which is China’s homegrown version of GPS. I think, first of all, what it shows, that’s just what China is going to do. And I think Xi standing up and saying all that stuff, it presents China as a leader. It presents them as a partner. And again, it’s hard not to look at all of this through the prism of kind of U.S.-China relations and Cold War 2.0 and all of this stuff.
But I do think, you know, you said you were in Southeast Asia a few months ago, this is something that I always find when I am in third countries, particularly non-Western third countries, is they just say, “Look, China comes to us with ideas, with proactive plans for investment. The U.S. just kind of complains that us.” Or in this case, the U.S. is literally shaking the entire world down, right? Like the U.S. is coming to people and saying, “You need to pay me money.” China is going to people and saying, “Here’s what we’re going to do for you.” There’s an old trope, I think it’s like when America comes, you get a lecture; when China comes, you get a hospital.
And so, I think this to me is just kind of another example of that. And I think that resonates with the people that were in that room, with the countries with whom China is cooperating. And I think it just contrasts so sharply right now with the United States, which is like basically asking everybody to pay the United States.
Andrew:
Totally. I mean, I think we’re largely in agreement. You know, time will tell how impactful this one meeting was. Optically, narratively, huge. And certainly reflective of some very big trends. But I want to pivot a little bit now to some of the bilaterals that also happen, just to have you highlight kind of what you think really matters from the week. Again, we highlighted the big ones, which were Xi Jinping meeting individually with the heads of state of India, Russia, Malaysia, Indonesia, and North Korea, just on Thursday. I’ll read some of this stuff coming out from, or our thoughts on the Russia meeting. So, this was on Tuesday, Xi Jinping sat down with talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This was in Beijing. So, after the SCO, before the military parade, which we’ll talk about in a minute.
These meetings happen a lot. It turns out Xi and Putin have met over 45 times since Xi came to power in late 2012. There were good vibes between the heads of state, with Xi Jinping saying China’s willing to coordinate positions promptly on issues concerning their core interests and major concerns, and push for further growth of China-Russia relations. Putin was basically on the same wavelength. The two also backed it up with 22 cooperation agreements across energy, space, artificial intelligence, agriculture, and scientific research, among others. Finally, a couple of developments stood out to us. There was a “legally binding memorandum” signed to advance the long-stalled power of Siberia to natural gas pipeline. And then China said it will allow visa-free entry for Russian passport holders on a trial basis for one year.
So, clearly, no daylight between Russia and China. Where do you view that relationship now? And then did you have any other nuggets from some of the key meetings? I would love to hear your thoughts on North Korea. We haven’t really heard much. And now all of a sudden, Kim Jong-un is back in the mix.
Trey:
Well, I think just before we get the angry emails or whatever, maybe it’s worth just saying, because I think we’re kind of putting the two together, which I think is fine and kind of how I think of it, but there were basically two big events, right? You had the SCO summit, and then a few days later, you had the Victory Day Parade. And heads of state, some of them attended both. Some came for one and not the other. So, when we talk about all these bilateral meetings, some of them were on the back of the SCO summit, some of them were on the back of the Victory Day Parade. So, for instance, like Modi came to the SCO summit, but then he didn’t stay for the parade.
Kim Jong-un didn’t come to the SCO summit, but then was there for the parade. So just kind of want to make that clear to everybody, but-
Andrew:
Well, and can I just say quickly, I’m so glad you brought that up because I just want to say quickly, I love our readers and our listeners because, seriously, we will not get angry emails about some take or opinion or analysis we have. But if we get the detail of who is in Tianjin and who is in Beijing wrong, our readers will jump down our throats. Our lovely China nerd readers who just to pay… have such an attention to detail. So, keep those emails coming. We love them. But it is funny that we get those emails more than the “you guys are wrong about your take on X.” So, anyway, I encourage everybody to keep the feedback coming.
Trey:
So, bilateral meetings, I mean the ones that stood out, obviously Xi-Putin, but I think you’ve covered that pretty well. And, basically, what it said is we are tight and getting tighter. I think we’ve already talked about Xi-Modi a little bit. I mean, that one is more complicated, and I think the proof will be in the pudding. So, we didn’t see kind of big outcomes from that meeting. There are some really low hanging fruit. I think the lowest hanging of all fruits are the fact that there are no direct flights between the two most populous countries in the world.
Andrew:
I thought they already addressed that.
Trey:
I think they had said that they were going to work that out when Wang Yi went to India last month. But having already said that, you would think they would have mentioned it again. I didn’t see any mention of it, but you correct me if I’m wrong.
Andrew:
Yeah, still no specific date has been set.
Trey:
Yeah, exactly. I haven’t completely dug into it, but nothing jumped out to me.
Andrew:
That’s insane. Just think about that for a sec. You pointed out the two most populous countries in the world. So, like almost 3 billion people.
Trey:
Who also happen to, like, share a border. I mean, it’s also two of the largest economies in the world. I mean, it is insane. I mean, this is kind of going off a little bit on a tangent, but I think the question that everybody’s been asking this week is like, “How important was all this? Was this kind of like a watershed moment or a kind of historical turning point?” And the truth is, it’s like we have no idea, and you don’t really know what’s important. I mean, it will depend on what happens over the next 25 years. But I think one way that the next 25 years could play out is that you could see the United States unravel, and Europe continue to kind of stagnate.
And that basically, you know, the Asian century that everybody has talked about could actually come, and you could really see definitively the center of global power and economic activity and culture all shift, and be firmly situated in Asia. And I think if that does play out, then I do think people will look back at these meetings, and they will say, “That was kind of one of the steps towards that or symbolic of that shift.”
Andrew:
Totally agree. I mean, it is hard to judge it in real time, but it’s like almost a gut feeling. Again, there’s a media narrative around it, but it just feels like a big deal, especially when you see, which will get into, sort of the U.S. president longingly looking at the military parade, clearly wishing he was there and/or having his own military parade. It’s just the optics are just so in your face on some of this. But talk to me about North Korea, what’s going on there?
Trey:
Well, I’m going to disappoint you because I don’t have much to say. I mean, I think it was a little bit surprising to me, not least because a few months ago in the summer, there were indications that the South Korean president was going to attend the Victory Day Parade.
Andrew:
That would have been awkward.
Trey:
That would have been very awkward. The head of the South Korean legislature still attended the Victory Day Parade, which I think is telling, and I think shows the way that South Korea, in particular, but a very close American ally, I think that kind of underlines what you alluded to earlier about countries in Asia and the fact that they very much feel like they have to get along with both China and the United States. And it has always been this, not just in the Trump era, but for centuries or for decades, that has certainly been the case, and I think it still is the case. So, that was my first thought when I saw Kim there was, you know, did they have Kim come at the expense of the South Korean president, or did they wait until the South Korean president had canceled and then they invited Kim?
I don’t know very much about what goes on in the hermit kingdom. I do know that China has long, and Xi Jinping in particular, has long been frustrated by North Korea, that it is not the happiest of relationships. But I think, I mean, it’s hard not to read this as just one more kind of thumbing it to Western capitals and just saying, like, “Hey”-
Andrew:
Well, it feels in particular like the Europeans on that one, right? I mean, Russia, who’s invaded Ukraine, and the two largest supporters of that, effectively of that war, right?
Trey:
Yeah.
Andrew:
Well, one other quick side note, since we’re keeping a little loose today, is I love it when the media outlets describe something in geopolitics as awkward, so which is a word that is earlier. They use that all the time at the outbreak of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, saying, “China’s position is awkward. China is sitting on the fence and it’s awkward.” Kind of implying that because it was “awkward,” China was going to have to change its position because I think it’s sort of like when something in your interpersonal experience is awkward, you try to get away from it, or you try to change it, or you try to address the awkwardness. But just because something is “awkward,” first of all, awkward from whose perspective?
But anyway, because it’s awkward in geopolitics, it doesn’t mean it’s an unsustainable position. It’s like a little bit of a pet peeve of mine that people are like, “Well, that’s an awkward geopolitical thing, so it must have to change.” No, like actually like countries can maintain awkward or weird stances for a really long time. Anyway, that’s neither here nor there, but I had to throw it out there.
Trey:
Had to.
Andrew:
I had to. I mean, I think it was like bursting inside of me. Okay, we’ve touched on it, but just want to see if there’s any final stuff. Because as you said, the enduring kind of optics, the enduring visual from the meeting is, for those of you who haven’t seen it, Vladimir Putin, Russian president and Narendra Modi, Indian prime minister, walking hand in hand, beaming, smiling, walking up to Xi Jinping in apparently an unscripted moment, the three of them sort of embracing and having a big laugh with each other, I mean, any final thoughts on Russia, India, China, or that specific moment beyond kind of that’s what everybody will remember from this?
Trey:
I mean, no, not really, actually, but I do have some kind of final thoughts. Like, I realize we need to wrap up. And so, I think, there’s just two things that I want to point out that are kind of, I think, maybe mistakes I’ve seen in kind of Western media coverage or just narratives that are maybe oversimplified. I mean, the first is at the SCO summit, I woke up, and I remember because this is my job, right? Like people every day asked me, okay, what does this mean? What’s going on? And so, I woke up to just these, like, screaming headlines, you know, like XI Jinping declares new world order, Xi Jinping to reshape the world. You know, all this type of stuff. I was like, “Whoa, what happened?”
Andrew:
What happened?
Trey:
Like, oh my gosh. And then I found out that what it was, was that Xi Jinping has proposed something called the Global Governance Initiative, right? And the Global Governance Initiative looks to be just about the most boring thing I’ve ever seen. I mean, I thought it was pretty amazing because it clearly is not some sort of huge revisionist initiative. It’s, basically, I’m not going to get into the details, but I would say it’s, broadly speaking, looking to reform current global institutions to kind of address what China sees as deficiencies, the main one being that they don’t feel like it represents the developing world very clearly.
But I thought it was telling, the Foreign Ministry put out of what they called a concept paper on the Global Governance Initiative. And I think it’s worth just reading how they described it. “To reform and improve global governance does not mean to overturn the existing international order or to create another framework outside the current international system. Rather, the goal is to make the existing international system and international institutions better at taking actions, working effectively, adapting to changes, responding promptly and effectively to various global challenges, and serving the interests of all countries, particularly developing ones. No matter how the international landscape changes, China will remain firm in safeguarding the international system, with the UN at its core, and the international order underpinned by international law.”
I think we could, and people will, and we can debate whether or not China really abides by international law, how much it follows the rules, but I do think it’s important to note the way that China approaches these thing. I just think that saying that Xi Jinping has proposed a new global paradigm or a new global system or whatever these kind of screaming clickbaity headlines are, is really off the mark.
Andrew:
Good point. Although I’ll say you’d make a terrible newspaper editor.
Trey:
Yeah. And well, I think the other thing similarly on that one, I think also China had this big military parade, showed off some big weapons, some big scary weapons at this parade. And I think also, again, the overwhelming narrative is like China show of force on the march, I think, particularly in the United States, I mean, everybody’s kind of convinced that China wants to take over the world, and this parade was proof of it. But I do think it’s important, again, you look at what Xi Jinping says on the rostrum while looking these over, right? And he says, “Today, humanity, once again, faces a choice between peace and war, dialogue and confrontation, win-win cooperation, and zero-sum rivalry. The Chinese people stand firmly on the right side of history and the side of human civilization and progress. We will unswervingly pursue the path of peaceful development.”
Andrew:
I mean, it’s an interesting line to take when you’re standing in front of a parade of some of the biggest, most sophisticated military weaponry on the planet, right?
Trey:
Yes, absolutely.
Andrew:
Peace through strength, one might say. Right?
Trey:
Yes, totally. Except, I think, it goes back to talking about awkward. Right? Where, I think with all of these things, it’s not black and white, and countries are trying to do multiple things at one time, and I think we tend to simplify it into one or the other. And, certainly, China has gotten more aggressive with regards to Taiwan or in the South China Sea. Certainly, also, China does have this legacy of being colonized and feeling kind of like an international victim that is surrounded by mean states, and it has to protect itself. And I think those things can be true at the same time. And I also think, I don’t know if you’ve seen the news this morning, Andrew, but talk about symbolism. I don’t know if you saw that the Department of Defense will now be called the Department of War.
Andrew:
Oh yeah, I saw that.
Trey:
So, this is just another one where, of course, if you point out to anybody in D.C., and say, “Hey, look, Xi Jinping just said that China is committed to peaceful development,” they’ll say, “Oh, that’s a lie. He doesn’t mean that,” right? But I think when he says the world is at a point and we have a choice between peace and war, and China stands on the side of peace, and there’s another country, the one that has the really big military that just changed its defense ministry to the Department of War, I think that resonates. Right?
Andrew:
Definitely with other countries. Yeah, we were talking to somebody when I was in London last week, seeing you, and this was kind of my point, I had the same question, like, why is this such a big deal? And I’ll just say, you know, we haven’t touched too much on the military parade, but you hit all the main things I wanted to hit in terms of what Xi Jinping said at the parade. And we are not going to get into the specifics of the military hardware or anything because we’re not military analysts.
Trey:
Because we know nothing about it.
Andrew:
Exactly. Yeah, time. Too much time. We don’t have time. But I will say a couple of things. One is I don’t think that the media narrative would have been as pitched or as, hysterical is not the right word, but, you know, it’s so extreme. Had it not been for sort of the one-two punch of the SCO and the military parade, one or the other without both, probably just has less of an impact. Even though the reporting out of SCO was quite, hyperbolic is the wrong, but it was already new world order stuff. But I think that is because they knew this military parade was coming, and these country’s leaders were going to be around for a while. And, again, that Donald Trump was very interested in this whole parade. So, I think the double whammy definitely impacted.
And then my answer to the person that was asking, like, “Why does this stuff matter?” Is was actually to say I think a lot of this hits so hard in Western media and in Western capitals because, definitely in the U.S., and in large parts of Europe, people still cannot wrap their heads around the idea that these third party countries see something of value in China. Right? Like, we think we’re the cool kids. They’re always going to be with us. China’s not the cool kids. And so, when people show interest in aligning with China or cozying up to them or whatever it is, it’s like a shock to the system because it’s just not in our mental frameworks, at least of most people in government, like, what? Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, they are there and not like coming to us?
Trey:
To be fair, Thailand was not there.
Andrew:
I knew Thailand wasn’t there. Yeah, and I almost addressed it, and then you called me out. So, okay. Alright.
Trey:
Well, I just wanted to stop the emails, like just nip it in the bud. Do you know what I mean?
Andrew:
Yeah. Exactly. No, no, thank you, thank you, thank you. But, I mean, you get my point, right? Like, I think that’s part of the intense reaction from the West is like, what is going on? I thought everybody hated China. And then it turns out, oh, actually, like other countries are quite interested in seeing what China has to offer. And so, I think that’s part of the thing that really, I don’t know, drives some of this coverage because it’s almost like a visceral, like, this isn’t supposed to be happening. I don’t know if you have any thoughts on that. Again, we kind of touched on the key aspects of the military parade. To wrap up one little dessert here, I guess, is that there was also a lot of coverage of a hot mic moment at the military parade between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin.
So, these guys were talking kind of a hot mic as they walked up to the rostrum at Tiananmen Square to view the military parade. The topic of discussion was longevity. So, Putin says, “You know, biotechnology is continuously developing. The longer you live, the younger you become, and you can even achieve immortality.” Xi Jinping responds, “Some predict that in this century, humans may live to 150 years old.” Of course, these guys are both 72. They are getting up there. There’s questions around both of them on their succession, which, of course, immediately triggered most of the coverage. What do you make of that? Is that just small talk between two dudes hanging out, looking at some big weapons, or is that reflective of where these guys’ heads are at?
Trey:
I mean, the whole military parade was just like all the baddies of the world hanging out together, like, Xi and Putin and Kim Jong-un, and then you’ve got like Lukashenko and the leader of the Myanmar military junta. I don’t know, it didn’t look good. And then to have like kind of the leaders of that crew being like, “Yo, I think we can probably live forever.” “Yes.” I mean, it’s like out of like a bad movie, right?
Andrew:
Totally, James Bond. Yeah.
Trey:
That said, I mean, my reading of it is kind of Occam’s razor, I mean, first, I think it was clearly small talk. I also couldn’t help but wonder if, like, Xi Jinping was kind of humoring Putin.
Andrew:
That’s exactly what I thought.
Trey:
Yeah, Putin’s statement is pretty weird because he goes to immortality, which is like kind of batshit. And Xi Jinping is like, “Yeah, yeah, I think, like, you might even be able to live to 150.” My like thought bubble is he is just like, “Whoa, what is this guy talking about?”
Andrew:
A hundred percent. Okay, I totally thought, and I mean, I’m not trying to, whatever, say Xi Jinping’s the best in the world or whatever, but I thought when I read Vladimir Putin’s statement, I was like, dude, if somebody walked up to me at a party and said that, I’d be like, “Oh, yeah, I mean, yeah, I think I saw this study that maybe you can live to 150.” I was like, that would be my reaction, and so that’s so funny that you had that same thought.
Trey:
I mean, Xi said something else a little bit more telling. Wasn’t he the one that said, like you feel younger or you feel better, like?
Andrew:
According to our reporting…
Trey:
You should check a credible source, Andrew.
Andrew:
Putin said the longer you live, the younger you become.
Trey:
I think we might have left out one line, I’m not sure. But anyway, I think there was something in the comments that was basically like, “Yeah, basically, we’re not that old.” And I do get the feeling that Xi probably thinks that, or at least, I mean, definitely is not planning on retiring anytime soon.
Andrew:
His mom’s 101. So, he could be looking at her and be like, “Oh, I’ve got at least 30 years.” That’s interesting. Well, we’ll be covering Xi Jinping for a long time to come, obviously. Maybe he’ll outlive both of us.
Trey:
Maybe forever. Maybe it’ll all go on forever.
Andrew:
We can wrap it up there. This has been, hopefully — it’s just fun for me. I don’t know; listeners may not think it was as fun, but hopefully, the listeners enjoyed it.
Trey:
I’m glad somebody enjoyed it.
Andrew:
Yeah. Well, listen, man, this has been great. Kind of a long run, but hopefully people enjoy it, like I said. Thanks a bunch for the time, man. It’s good to see you, as always.
Trey:
Yeah. Good to be here.
Andrew:
alright. Thanks, everybody. We’ll see you next time. Bye.
