Trivium China Weekly Recap | Breakdown

It’s been less than three weeks since the US and China announced a 90-day tariff de-escalation – and already the détente appears to be breaking down before our eyes.

At issue: Both sides are already accusing each other of not holding up their end of the bargain.

• U.S. President Trump stated explicitly on social media on Friday that China “has totally violated its agreement with us.”

• For their part, Chinese officials said last week that the US Commerce Department’s recent guidance on Huawei Ascend chips could derail talks.

• Then this week, reports emerged that Commerce is instructing major US electronic design automation (EDA) software companies to restrict sales to Chinese buyers.

• China hasn’t responded to this move in force — at least yet — but we expect a greater rhetorical response soon, and perhaps outright retaliation.

• Finally, US Treasury Scott Bessent said in a media interview this week that ongoing talks are hitting an impasse — which may require direct intervention from Xi Jinping and Donald Trump (something the Chinese leader is unlikely to pursue).

From China’s perspective, the additional tweaks to export controls that the US has undertaken over the past three weeks cut against “the spirit” of the Geneva talks – and underscore the U.S.’s lack of sincerity in finding a lasting truce.

On the U.S. side, the administration reportedly thinks that China is not rolling back its own export controls on rare earth elements (REEs) quickly or fully enough to be considered in line with the Geneva agreement.

• It was apparently this perception that led to the recent EDA controls.

• In addition, the US is also now reportedly restricting the sale of jet engines to COMAC, China’s state-owned aerospace manufacturer — with reports indicating this move is also in direct response to ongoing REE export controls.

• And on Saturday, Axios reported that even Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s announcement that the US will “aggressively” revoke Chinese student visas was meant as retaliation for the controls.

While talks have not totally broken down — and the fragile détente remains in place for now — this week’s back-and-forth highlights just how quickly things can go off the rails, and how easily re-escalation could begin.