The Limits of China’s Iran Diplomacy

The U.S. and China clashed at the United Nations last week, with each accusing the other of fueling instability in the Persian Gulf. Washington has long argued that Beijing plays a pivotal role in the conflict as the largest buyer of Iranian oil and a supplier of dual-use technologies that could support Tehran’s military.

Many experts, however, dispute that assessment. They argue that China’s ability to influence Iran is far more limited than commonly assumed and that there is little evidence Tehran would bow to Chinese pressure on matters of national security. Nor is there any indication that Beijing is willing to use whatever leverage it may have.

Jesse Marks, CEO of the Asia-Middle East consultancy Rihla Research & Advisory and a leading scholar of Chinese diplomacy in the region, joins Eric to explain why Beijing is likely to remain a largely passive player, both as the war continues and in whatever political settlement eventually emerges.

Show Notes:
- East Asia Forum: Iran’s bid for Beijing’s backing meets its limits by Jesse Marks - https://eastasiaforum.org/2025/08/22/...
- Arab Gulf States Institute: China’s Mediation Ceiling in the Iran War by Jesse Marks https://agsi.org/analysis/chinas-medi...
- Gulf International Forum: Parallel, Not Replacement: Why China Can’t Supplant U.S. Security in the Gulf by Jesse Marks & Chenjie Song - https://gulfif.org/parallel-not-repla...

📌 Topics Covered in This Episode
1. China and the U.S. clash at the UN
2. Does Beijing have leverage over Iran?
3. Why China’s diplomacy has limits
4. Pakistan’s role in Iran mediation
5. The future Gulf security order
6. What China wants after the war

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